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Monday, February 25, 2008

This week in the NHL, by Kevin Lindstrom

As we go into another week, there have been some movers and shakers, and some moved and shaken. The Devils and Islanders make the best positive moves up, and Philadelphia and Colorado fall the farthest. To a certain degree, that doesn't reflect the fact that Detroit fell quite a bit - almost back to earth. Now just six points ahead of [Bill]Your Dallas Stars![/Bill], the once invulnerable Supermen are now as fallible as the rest. Everyone do their evil laugh and rub your hands together. He he he.

This is the last set of rankings before the trade deadline. Will it matter? Will there be moves? Will the Avs signing Forsberg matter? Fun stuff, indeed. I'm not going to try to read the mist and see what trades might happen, so I'll go into a bit more detail about some of the teams below in the comments. For now, though, here are the rankings and the teams' accompanying stats. Take a look and see how your favorite team and teams you love to hate did, then see the comments section for a more detailed look at where the teams stand.






Home

Away

No. Team Pts G W L OTL W L OTL +/-
1 Detroit Red Wings 89 64 21 7 2 21 10 3 0
2 **Dallas Stars** 83 66 20 10 2 19 12 3 2
3 New Jersey Devils 79 63 21 11 1 16 10 4 6
4 Ottawa Senators 78 63 19 12 3 17 9 3 -2
5 Pittsburgh Penguins 77 63 18 10 5 17 11 2 0
6 Anaheim Ducks 79 66 20 8 4 16 15 3 4
7 Montreal Canadiens 75 63 14 12 5 19 9 4 0
8 San Jose Sharks 74 62 14 13 5 19 8 3 -5
9 Minnesota Wild 73 62 18 10 3 16 13 2 -3
10 Calgary Flames 74 63 16 10 7 17 12 1 5
11 Vancouver Canucks 72 62 17 11 3 15 11 5 5
12 Boston Bruins 70 61 14 12 3 18 11 3 2
13 Buffalo Sabres 69 63 16 10 4 14 14 5 -1
14 NY Rangers 72 64 20 13 0 12 11 8 4
15 Nashville Predators 72 64 20 10 4 12 14 4 -2
16 Philadelphia Flyers 69 63 13 12 6 18 13 1 -8
17 Phoenix Coyotes 69 63 14 14 3 18 12 2 0
18 Colorado Avalanche 68 63 18 11 2 13 15 4 -7
19 NY Islanders 67 63 17 12 3 14 14 5 6
20 St. Louis Blues 66 62 18 10 5 10 14 5 2
21 Carolina Hurricanes 69 65 17 11 3 15 17 2 -1
22 Columbus Blue Jackets 67 64 16 9 6 13 17 3 -3
23 Chicago Blackhawks 64 62 15 13 1 14 14 5 1
24 Washington Capitals 64 63 15 13 3 13 14 5 -3
25 Florida Panthers 63 65 12 12 6 16 18 1 -2
26 Toronto Maple Leafs 63 64 16 12 5 11 16 4 0
27 Atlanta Thrashers 62 63 16 14 2 13 16 2 0
28 Edmonton Oilers 61 63 16 14 1 12 16 4 0
29 Tampa Bay Lightning 57 62 15 15 2 10 15 5 0
30 Los Angeles Kings 56 64 14 17 2 12 17 2 0



Comments

Let's start at the bottom for once. Interesting to see so little change between 26-30. Remember, the last time we did these rankings, it was February 11 - two weeks ago. Clearly, that is the group that is in need of The Fork. If they aren't planning for the future, someone isn't paying attention.

The next group are the ones who have a fighting chance to make the playoffs, but surely need help. From the Caps to the Islanders, you have teams within striking distance of the playoffs even though they are in slots 19-24 in the rankings, with the Isles the ones making the most of their current run of play.

This next group has two of the farthest to fall - will they fall all the way out of the playoffs? Philadelphia and Colorado are not getting the kind of results that scream, "Playoffs - here we come!" This is probably the group with the most activity as teams fight to get into the playoffs.

Then we get into the meat of the NHL - the top 12 spots. Slots six through twelve have some interesting stories. Anaheim almost doesn't deserve to be in this group as they are on a streak barely hotter than Dallas. But they need a little more to join the upper echelon. Calgary and Vancouver have both made strong moves upward. San Jose and Minnesota are the teams in this group that tripped a bit.

I'm not sure if Pittsburgh should be in this group or the one above it..... And based on recent form, you could make an argument that Anaheim should be above the Penguins. But as I said before, these are in large part overall rankings, not week by week flights of fancy. If both teams continue their trends, the Ducks will pass Pittsburgh by the time we meet again.

The top four spots belong to the red hot Devils, the really red hot Stars, the struggling Senators and of course those pesky Red Wings. How much longer will Ottawa stay with the big dogs? Hard to say. The line between this group and the one below it is a bit thin and right now, they are not keeping pace.

So which teams are going to pull the trigger? I don't know, but I do know that Colorado (3-5-2) and Philadelphia (1-7-2) have significant slides to recover from. San Jose and Detroit have been struggling of late as well. None of these three are clubs that put up with poor play well, so they are going to do something. The bubble teams probably want a little somethin-somethin' to make a good push, as well.

The teams to watch, though, are Dallas, Anaheim and Jersey - teams playing well with lots of momentum. If they can do something to keep that momentum going forward, they could be tough to catch. Under the right circumstances, any of the three might be able to catch the Red Wings unless they right their ship soon.

Not to complicate things too much, but remember this: Lots of teams have reasons to make moves, but not that many teams are in the sellers market, so there is a risk of overpaying.

So with all that said, let's sit back and watch and see what unfolds.

Trade Deadline 2008 - The Countdown (22.5hrs)

These are the big rumors revolving around Dallas that I've seen in the last weeks, and how they have, or are, working themselves out.

Matts Sundin, Toronto Maple Leafs - asked to waive his No-Trade clause and thought hard the past week, but ultimately decided to stick with Toronto. For the team it was "what's best for the team" but for him it was staying true to his heart. Sundin has been a Leaf for 13 seasons and does not believe in rental players, which is what he was being asked to be - he's not even sure he'll return next season - what does he care if he spends 4 months with a team that might make it, or the team he leaves.

Alexander Tanguay, Calgary Flames - a big rumor for the Dallas Market, he fit the bill pretty well and people seemed to think they'd like our youngin's. Well today GM Daryl Sutter said "No Way" - he was uninterested in trading away Tanguay, and in my opinion, this was a smart move for him. It helps that the flames aren't in last place.

Peter Forsberg, Unrestricted Free Agent - We've heard the back and forth on this one. Well, his favorit team, the Avs, have called on him. Turns out he was willing to take 1 season (financials not yet disclosed) but only for the right team. We'll see him towards the end of the season. Expect to see him on the IR for a few weeks ... if nothing else a Healthy Scratch. There is no way his foot is ready for what he'll need to be doing for the Avs to win.

Brad Richards, Tampa Bay Lightening - Brad could fit REALLY well in Dallas, although what we need is someone to take the shot, not make the pass. But like I said, he has the potential. I'd even like to see him here - but NOT FOR 7.8 MILLION BUX. Jeeez Tampa. So, he's definitely on the block, and someone is going to pick him up, but for the love of god I hope it isn't Dallas. FYI - that would make him, I believe, our highest paid player for the next two seasons and would pretty much nail us to the roof of the salary cap at least next year. Also, we would likely have to let go of Smitty, unless there was a 3-way trade involved, and I don't know I even see that happening.

So, it looks like so far we're going to go MAJOR trade-free, unless Hull & Jackson are masters of Magic, and I'm not one to say they aren't! So, raise a glass for hockey and say a toast for your team in hopes we love who we see in 22.5 hours ...

Introducing Kevin Lindstrom

Kevin was introduced to me at the beginning of this hockey season through the Dallas Stars Havoc Fanatics. Over this season we have become close friends and have found our mutual love of the Stars as a strong bonding point.

Professionally Kevin works with FC Dallas, the MLS team in the DFW Metroplex; his experience as a fan(atic) is not a new thing has he has been following the Stars as long as they've been in Dallas and has helped run the Inferno, FC Dallas' fan organization, since it's inception, I think.

He's a crazy bastard (not a commentary on his mother, but himself) and has MANY opinions, some I agree with and some I find amusing! I think you'll enjoy learning about his statistical analysis and opinions on the Stars, and the NHL (and likely already have started with his two previous posts).

All in all, I couldn't be happier welcoming (finally) Kevin to the Dallas Stars Podcast Blog Team!

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

This week in the NHL, by Kevin Lindstrom

This Week in the NHL, 2-19-08 Edition, by Kevin Lindstrom

Lookie here – someone else is creating a little separation from the pack. And who might it be, but [Bill]Your-Dallas-Stars![/Bill]

Other than a slight stumble in Phoenix, the Stars have been playing their kind of hockey and imposing their will on whoever they play. On Sunday, it was against the Detroit Red Wings – that is right, the Invincible Team that has now lost SIX in a row. And that’s right, we’re the one that gave them No. 6 – after beating Anaheim in Anaheim on Friday.

Nice.

Now surely, Detroit will right their ship. I’m sure all the Red Wing fans are going “better now than in April.” And they are right. And they also shrugged off their bad streak on Monday with a battering of the Avs. Ah, yes, Dallas-Detroit-Colorado – the way the West should be. (Sorry for the Good Old Days Syndrome lapse….)

But that doesn’t take anything away from the fact that Your Dallas Stars are a good bit ahead of everyone else an playing some pretty solid hockey pretty much night in and night out. And even though some of that distance washes out when the games played are factored in, you still have a team playing the team with the best record in the game at home and last year’s Champs on their ice and coming out on top.

Looks like Detroit isn’t the only team stumbling a bit, either. Ottawa took it on the chin a few times last week as well, and San Jose is on a terrible run. Minnesota seems to be making headway, along with the Ducks (despite their loss to the Stars).

Looking around the league, and there really isn’t a lot of “new”, other than the fact that who is currently in and currently out of the playoffs changes from day to day and things are tight after the Stars.

So what are the current issues for the Stars relative to the rest of the league? Two issues pop in my head – who wins the Pacific (and how important that may or may not be) and what trades could change the landscape.

Who can catch the Stars for the Pacific Division? The Ducks will have to get better and hope the Stars cool off as they are six points back and even on games. Those two things are possible, but will it happen to the degree the Ducks need? Less clear. As for the Sharks, they are nine points back but have four games in hand – possibly more realistic, but games in hand don’t always equate to points, especially when it means you have to play more games than other teams.

The trade deadline is approaching and with Forsberg pulling himself out of the NHL for this year, things could get interesting. Here is hoping Your Dallas Stars don’t do anything unless it is the right move at the right price. Why? You’ve got a good group who seems to have come together this year and are playing well. Give them a chance to play together in the playoffs and see how they do. Obviously, the goal is to win the Cup, but sometimes a team has to become a band of brothers – and you can’t do that anywhere but in the playoffs.

All in all, the Stars just need to keep raising their game with the goal of peaking in the playoffs, ‘cause after all the regular season success this team has had over the years, we know what matters – winning in the playoffs. That isn’t to say that the regular season isn’t important, or that winning the division isn’t a good thing, but I’d rather the team peak at the right time rather than push themselves silly in the regular season. Keep improving, keep pushing – but make sure that you’re playing your best hockey in April and May, not in February or March.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

DSP NHL Rankings by Kevin Lindstrom

And now for something completely different.

Please see below my first ever NHL Rankings. I've included some of the standings information along with the rankings so you can compare and contrast what I've got with what you think - and by all means, fire away with the comments.

When you do league-wide rankings, part of the question is what exactly are you ranking? Hottest teams right now, over-the-season rankings?

For me, it is more of the latter although I will bump up or down teams that I think are trending a particular way from time to time. But these rankings are supposed to be discussion fodder, so feel free to share your opinion.

For now, let's start with the actual rankings. The comments are below.

NHL Rankings through February 11, 2008




















Home

Away
No. Team Pts G W L OTL W L OTL
1 Detroit Red Wings 87 58 21 6 2 20 6 3
2 Ottawa Senators 72 56 18 9 2 16 9 2
3 San Jose Sharks 69 55 14 12 4 17 5 3
4 **Dallas Stars** 75 60 18 9 2 15 11 2
5 Pittsburgh Penguins 69 56 17 9 3 15 10 2
6 Minnesota Wild 68 56 17 9 2 15 11 2
7 Montreal Canadiens 67 56 12 10 5 17 8 4
8 Philadelphia Flyers 65 55 13 9 5 17 11 0
9 New Jersey Devils 66 56 17 11 0 14 10 4
10 Anaheim Ducks 65 56 18 8 2 12 13 3
11 Colorado Avalanche 69 60 16 7 4 15 15 3
12 Buffalo Sabres 64 56 15 10 7 13 10 1
13 Nashville Predators 61 55 14 11 3 14 11 2
14 Boston Bruins 64 57 17 8 3 12 14 3
15 Calgary Flames 61 56 14 11 2 13 11 5
16 Vancouver Canucks 62 56 15 8 3 12 13 5
17 Phoenix Coyotes 60 56 11 13 2 17 11 2
18 NY Rangers 63 59 17 13 0 11 11 7
19 Columbus Blue Jackets 56 54 15 10 5 9 12 3
20 Carolina Hurricanes 61 58 16 8 6 10 15 3
21 Washington Capitals 59 57 15 13 1 12 12 4
22 St. Louis Blues 58 58 13 11 2 14 16 2
23 Florida Panthers 58 58 15 14 2 12 13 2
24 Chicago Blackhawks 57 59 11 12 4 15 15 2
25 NY Islanders 55 56 13 12 3 11 13 4
26 Toronto Maple Leafs 53 54 13 13 1 11 12 4
27 Atlanta Thrashers 55 57 13 10 5 10 15 4
28 Edmonton Oilers 55 57 14 14 1 11 13 4
29 Tampa Bay Lightning 52 56 14 13 2 9 14 4
30 Los Angeles Kings 51 58 12 16 1 12 15 2

Comments

So it is the Detroit Red Wings and 29 dwarfs? Is it really that simple? You would think not, and the playoffs can be a great equalizer, but right now, statistically, it is just sick.

No one has the kind of record – overall, home or away – that the Red Wings have. Our Dallas Stars have the second best point total in the league – and we’re 12 points back. Twelve. Dallas is the only team even close on the last ten games played – with 8 wins v. Detroit’s six wins, three losses and one OTL.

And yes, maybe a good part of Detroit’s success is their division. But twelve points? Wow.

Thank goodness for the playoffs, huh?

So let’s look beyond the Red Wings – who may once again win the President’s Trophy and nothing else. It’s been done more often than you’d think and I’m sure we’d all do a little happy dance to see it happen again.

So who are the teams that can give Detroit a run in the playoffs? Right now they are Ottawa, San Jose, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Montreal and Philly. The Sharks take a slight edge over Dallas because of their games in hand – but considering how Dallas has played since the All Star break, that edge may be short lived. Seven in a row ain't easy, and the refocused Marty sure is nice to have in goal. We'll see if this is just a good run or a sign that the Stars have turned a corner.

But overall, these seven are the teams that right now have shown consistently that they are winning the King of the Hill game that is the NHL this year. It is surprising the lack of difference between playoff spots 4 and 8 in both conferences – less than seven points in both conferences separate the wild card teams.

At this juncture, New Jersey, Anaheim, Colorado, Buffalo, Nashville and Boston are the teams that might be able to join the top tier. It will be interesting to see how long the Ducks stay in this group with the return of Selanne and Niedermayer. Early returns haven’t been great, but it has only been a week or two. If it is just a matter of those guys getting their legs under them, they could make a run at the top group in short order.

We start to see some separation with this next group where the teams aren’t as tight on the heels of the teams in front of them: Calgary, Vancouver, Phoenix, the Rangers, Columbus, Carolina, Washington and St. Louis. How bad is the Southeast Division? It isn’t until 21 that we see the first team in their division. Contrast that with the Pacific where you have San Jose and Dallas in the top four and other than Los Angeles, not a weak team in the bunch – which is saying something about the Coyotes.

This is a situation where a more balanced schedule will really help out. Overloading the Ducks and Stars and Sharks with high quality games as opposed to the muck that, say, Detroit has in their division (Chicago, St. Louis and Columbus aren’t exactly welterweights) gives an adverse advantage to some teams. In part, that is what makes me think that Detroit is beatable – maybe not by much, but beatable, nonetheless.

The final set includes Florida, Chicago, the Islanders, Atlanta, Toronto, Edmonton, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. Edmonton and Toronto should be better than this, frankly – especially with the new NHL cap structure. Atlanta seems to have fallen back into the muck after seeming to have made some significant progress.

Well, we’re in the stretch run now. Time to see some more separation. From all accounts, Dallas, San Jose and Ottowa seem to be the teams that can make a real run in this last part of the season – who else do you see joining them in the run at the Red Wings?

Thursday, January 3, 2008

I Love My Stars (the Still Slumping edition)

I love my Stars, I really do.  The bring me all the emotions I can ask for: happiness, joy & excitement; fights, goals and great shootouts.  However, they have these times where they show a lack of ... how do you say ... consistency.

Now, I'm not jumping on the "I hate the Stars" bandwagon just because they've hit a bit of a slump, when you play as much hockey as they do I'd like to think you're entitled to weeks like this (unless you're the Red Wings, they never slump, damn you Red Wings).  You know I'm not jumping on that bandwagon because here I am, writing a post about me loving the Stars.

Why I love my Stars:

  • The Best One-Two punch in Goaltending in the game (next to the Red Wings, damn you Red Wings).  Marty and Smitty really are a great combination, and with the stars unwilling to flat out say "Marty Turco is our starting goaltender and Smitty is our backup" I have to ask, WHY THE HELL AREN'T WE USING THEM LIKE THAT?  I'm not saying every other game, but 29 and 13?  Lets bring them a LITTLE closer together - give the old man a rest every couple days, let the kid have his shot at proving himself.
  • Depth at Defense.  Yeah, I said it, we have two HUGE stars out right now on defense (Zubie & Boucher) and just took another off the IR (Norstrom), but did we let it get us down?  Heck no, we let it bring Iowa down.  We, on the other hand, watched Grossman, Niskanen, and Fistric walk into the NHL and all work like skilled veterans.  But guys, they're not skilled veterans, they're inexperienced kids.  We love them, but they can't carry the team.  Why is it, however, Zubie can, alone, by himself, and with little help?  No wonder he's injured, he's working harder than anyone else.
  • Goal Scoring - yeah that's right, Goal Scoring.  Not only that, but it's all over the place.  That dirty Quebecois Ribeiro is having the BEST SEASON OF HIS NHL CAREER.  Brendan Morrow is finally acting like the top forward we knew he was. Niklas Hagman, yes, Hagman, has 14 goals (put him back on Ribeiro's line damn it).  Jussi Jokinen is finally scoring goals, and making assists; just might be out of that sophomore slump he was in last season (which wasn't REALLY that bad).  But where is Mikey Mo? 
  • Mike Modano - I love him, really, but I have a few questions ... I know, he's 3rd on the list in goals with and 4th in assists - on the team - but this is a guy who averages 70 to 90 points a season, and is looking to barely push 50 this season.  50 points - and last season he only had 43.  Don't tell me the guy needs a goal scorer by his side - he IS a goal scorer - he IS a play maker.  This season he hasn't been, consistantly, either.  I don't know what to blame, his age, the wife, a little voice in his head that keeps telling him he's old?  I dunno, all I know is if he doesn't pick up his game, if he finishes this year only slightly ahead of last year, I think it's time to admit he's that old player that stayed one season too long.  I love him, really, but what's going on?
  • Dave Tippet - did you see his post game interview after the loss to the Wild?  "Yes - no - they scored more than last time, we scored less" It was fantastic to watch, to see him shut the reporters asking the obvious.  And really, he's a very calm, straightforward coach who knows how to win with the team he has.  But Tip, Sir - why are Miettinen, Ribeiro and Morrow still skating together when they haven't performed in at least 3 games.  Throw them around a little - bring Hagman and Ribeiro back together for a few games - put Morrow and Modano back together for a game.  I know, I don't coach for a reason, I'm just sayin', you're the King of mixing things up, why aren't you now?

Really - I Love the Stars.  The things I Love are the things that drive the craziest (like Turco's ability to play the puck, and Turco's ability to screw up playing the puck).  I love Mikey Mo, Jussi, Morrow, Hagman, Meittinen, Turcs, Smitty, Boucher (was there ever any doubt) ... come on ... I love them all (especially the kids who are fighting to prove they belong) - but does anyone else wonder any of what I'm asking here?  Just a little?  No?

Hey - we still kick ass!  GO STARS!

--the wall

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Trade Rumors Abound - now Penguins?

Everyone in the NHL knows that our boys, Turcs & Smitty, are the most regular season 1,2 goalie combo in the NHL.  And to have Tobias Stephan in the background proving his worth in Iowa ... lets not forget to mention Dan Ellis who has seen his name in the top 5 goalie stats a number of times this year, who came out of our system.  All that said, we know how great our goalie farm system is.

I bring this up because today the Penguins announced Marc-Andre Flurry will be out for the next 6 weeks or more.  Combine that with one of their forwards being out for the SAME injury for the SAME period of time - well you can see where I'm going with this.

Even Heika speculates that, if nothing else, the opportunity is there.  However, what are the chances that Jackson & Hull go against their word to attempt trades for Malkin, Stall or Crosby?  Or are you speculators actually suggesting Smith is worthy of a trade for any of those three.  Sure, I love Smitty too, but come on now!

I say neigh, good Stars fans.  Neigh, this is a move that would only harm the Stars; Neigh, this is a move that would only harm the Penguins; Neigh, this is a move that would only harm Iowa.  Yes, it'd be great to see one of those guys here, but at what cost; at what cost are you willing to see it happen?

--the wall