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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

DSP NHL Rankings by Kevin Lindstrom

And now for something completely different.

Please see below my first ever NHL Rankings. I've included some of the standings information along with the rankings so you can compare and contrast what I've got with what you think - and by all means, fire away with the comments.

When you do league-wide rankings, part of the question is what exactly are you ranking? Hottest teams right now, over-the-season rankings?

For me, it is more of the latter although I will bump up or down teams that I think are trending a particular way from time to time. But these rankings are supposed to be discussion fodder, so feel free to share your opinion.

For now, let's start with the actual rankings. The comments are below.

NHL Rankings through February 11, 2008




















Home

Away
No. Team Pts G W L OTL W L OTL
1 Detroit Red Wings 87 58 21 6 2 20 6 3
2 Ottawa Senators 72 56 18 9 2 16 9 2
3 San Jose Sharks 69 55 14 12 4 17 5 3
4 **Dallas Stars** 75 60 18 9 2 15 11 2
5 Pittsburgh Penguins 69 56 17 9 3 15 10 2
6 Minnesota Wild 68 56 17 9 2 15 11 2
7 Montreal Canadiens 67 56 12 10 5 17 8 4
8 Philadelphia Flyers 65 55 13 9 5 17 11 0
9 New Jersey Devils 66 56 17 11 0 14 10 4
10 Anaheim Ducks 65 56 18 8 2 12 13 3
11 Colorado Avalanche 69 60 16 7 4 15 15 3
12 Buffalo Sabres 64 56 15 10 7 13 10 1
13 Nashville Predators 61 55 14 11 3 14 11 2
14 Boston Bruins 64 57 17 8 3 12 14 3
15 Calgary Flames 61 56 14 11 2 13 11 5
16 Vancouver Canucks 62 56 15 8 3 12 13 5
17 Phoenix Coyotes 60 56 11 13 2 17 11 2
18 NY Rangers 63 59 17 13 0 11 11 7
19 Columbus Blue Jackets 56 54 15 10 5 9 12 3
20 Carolina Hurricanes 61 58 16 8 6 10 15 3
21 Washington Capitals 59 57 15 13 1 12 12 4
22 St. Louis Blues 58 58 13 11 2 14 16 2
23 Florida Panthers 58 58 15 14 2 12 13 2
24 Chicago Blackhawks 57 59 11 12 4 15 15 2
25 NY Islanders 55 56 13 12 3 11 13 4
26 Toronto Maple Leafs 53 54 13 13 1 11 12 4
27 Atlanta Thrashers 55 57 13 10 5 10 15 4
28 Edmonton Oilers 55 57 14 14 1 11 13 4
29 Tampa Bay Lightning 52 56 14 13 2 9 14 4
30 Los Angeles Kings 51 58 12 16 1 12 15 2

Comments

So it is the Detroit Red Wings and 29 dwarfs? Is it really that simple? You would think not, and the playoffs can be a great equalizer, but right now, statistically, it is just sick.

No one has the kind of record – overall, home or away – that the Red Wings have. Our Dallas Stars have the second best point total in the league – and we’re 12 points back. Twelve. Dallas is the only team even close on the last ten games played – with 8 wins v. Detroit’s six wins, three losses and one OTL.

And yes, maybe a good part of Detroit’s success is their division. But twelve points? Wow.

Thank goodness for the playoffs, huh?

So let’s look beyond the Red Wings – who may once again win the President’s Trophy and nothing else. It’s been done more often than you’d think and I’m sure we’d all do a little happy dance to see it happen again.

So who are the teams that can give Detroit a run in the playoffs? Right now they are Ottawa, San Jose, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Montreal and Philly. The Sharks take a slight edge over Dallas because of their games in hand – but considering how Dallas has played since the All Star break, that edge may be short lived. Seven in a row ain't easy, and the refocused Marty sure is nice to have in goal. We'll see if this is just a good run or a sign that the Stars have turned a corner.

But overall, these seven are the teams that right now have shown consistently that they are winning the King of the Hill game that is the NHL this year. It is surprising the lack of difference between playoff spots 4 and 8 in both conferences – less than seven points in both conferences separate the wild card teams.

At this juncture, New Jersey, Anaheim, Colorado, Buffalo, Nashville and Boston are the teams that might be able to join the top tier. It will be interesting to see how long the Ducks stay in this group with the return of Selanne and Niedermayer. Early returns haven’t been great, but it has only been a week or two. If it is just a matter of those guys getting their legs under them, they could make a run at the top group in short order.

We start to see some separation with this next group where the teams aren’t as tight on the heels of the teams in front of them: Calgary, Vancouver, Phoenix, the Rangers, Columbus, Carolina, Washington and St. Louis. How bad is the Southeast Division? It isn’t until 21 that we see the first team in their division. Contrast that with the Pacific where you have San Jose and Dallas in the top four and other than Los Angeles, not a weak team in the bunch – which is saying something about the Coyotes.

This is a situation where a more balanced schedule will really help out. Overloading the Ducks and Stars and Sharks with high quality games as opposed to the muck that, say, Detroit has in their division (Chicago, St. Louis and Columbus aren’t exactly welterweights) gives an adverse advantage to some teams. In part, that is what makes me think that Detroit is beatable – maybe not by much, but beatable, nonetheless.

The final set includes Florida, Chicago, the Islanders, Atlanta, Toronto, Edmonton, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. Edmonton and Toronto should be better than this, frankly – especially with the new NHL cap structure. Atlanta seems to have fallen back into the muck after seeming to have made some significant progress.

Well, we’re in the stretch run now. Time to see some more separation. From all accounts, Dallas, San Jose and Ottowa seem to be the teams that can make a real run in this last part of the season – who else do you see joining them in the run at the Red Wings?

3 comments:

Pesto said...

Nice stuff there Kevin. I don't think you're way off base putting San Jose ahead of us for the time being,

I'm not even worried about Detriot, it doesn't matter if they're beatable or not if we can't make it past the first round!

If only we could play Canadian teams for the rest of the season...

Jay Leask said...

Great post Kevin! And welcome to the DSP Blog Team. It's about time!! Hopefully you posting will get my co-host and myself off our a$$es.

I think you pointed something fantastic out that many people don't talk about when it comes to scheduling concerns: being in a tough division vs an easy division really does make a difference.

Think about it - the Wings, who play 4 teams 8 times, if they swept those games that'd be 32 points, if the Stars only got 2/3 of their points in those series' we'd be about 11 points back ... notice anything in that number?

Anyway, great to have you!

Kevin Lindstrom said...

Thanks guys.

The Wall - big time. I mean, we have the defending champs and San Jose in our division. They have what? St. Louis? Columbus? Okay, Nashville can play well at times, but they are ranked lower than Anaheim and the Duck's placement doesn't completely reflect their current form.

Maybe part of next week's blog for me will include a division by division analysis.